UP Ibalon Bicol: Natural defense against H1N1 flu among Filipinos & the potential economic impact of the pandemic in poor countries

Natural defense against H1N1 flu among Filipinos & the potential economic impact of the pandemic in poor countries

6/24/2009 | Posted by mesiamd | Edit Post

In spite of the aggressive surveillance of the swine flu, the pandemic has basically spilled in the community raising the number of those stricken ill to 604 as of June 24, 2009. The rapid transmission in Metro Manila is expected to increase as more cases are identified. Nobody knows how the disease spread will end.

In a Wall Street blog by Shirley Wang on June 23, 2009, the World Bank has estimated that the pandemic may bring far-reaching negative economic impact in countries that are poor. In Mexico where the swine influenza started, it is estimated that tourism has dropped to 43%. Citing a 2006 study, World Bank says that the low end impact of the illness is a contraction of about 0.7% of global GDP similar to the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69. A high end impact can contract global GDP by 4.8% like the 1918-1919 Spanish flu. This is something to watch when the next flu season arrives. Countries with limited funds and facilities to fight the disease are most vulnerable to get the worst effects of the pandemic.

If greater than 80% of the illness is self-limiting---i.e. the viral infection heals by itself, then the main body defense is likely the person’s immunity. A breakdown of the immune response in persons with chronic illnesses or conditions of immunosuppression will therefore put a person at risk of getting sick or dying. People catching the virus at the same time disrupt the workplace. Productivity is undermined when illness prevents people from working.

If the new virus mutates to a deadly form, the picture may change for the worse when the genetic change turns towards the acquisition of more virulence. Influenza viruses which acquire traits of greater virulence have the capacity to sicken more people.

The techniques of prevention still apply to avoid getting ill. Constant hand-washing, educational seminars to understand the nature of the disease, avoiding huge crowds and quarantine of those suspected of having disease appreciably lowers the number of infection. Case finding and treating those who harbor signs of illness on time will help avoid transmission in the community.

The use of seasonal flu vaccine (vs. the vaccine against the new swine strain) is not expected to protect against the H1N1 flu and thus may end up just a wastage of money. The vaccine which will accomplish protection for swine flu is still under development in laboratories abroad.

Anti-virals (Tamiflu) may be used to ameliorate the signs of the disease, but their efficacy to foil the new H1N1 flu is basically equivocal. Dirty contaminated masks that are repeatedly used may serve as a soil on which the swine flu can grow if not discarded in a timely fashion. (Photo credit: Lucher) =0=

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Labels: antivifal, economy, H1N1 virus, immunity, impact, Influenza, pandemic, Swine flu, Totie Mesia, vaccination, World Bank

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Natural defense against H1N1 flu among Filipinos & the potential economic impact of the pandemic in poor countries

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