UP Ibalon Bicol: 9/11

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The Coming Crisis of 2009: Some Thoughts (Part 1)

1/02/2009 | Posted by myty555 | Edit Post

I do not know if my title is passe, that is, should it be termed as the crisis of 2008? Anyway, what the Philippines is experiencing so far is an economic downturn. There is no full crisis yet. But like the rest of the world Filipinos are worried about the spill-over effect of the US crisis.

Will there be a full-blown crisis? I don't know either. Nobody has a perfect crystal ball on this crisis. One thing, there is no denial complex like in the other crises so looking for solutions came earlier. And the host country of the crisis can possibly marshall up to a trillion dollars of intervention fund to soften the blow. And the world, tickled properly, will probably respond to multilateral efforts in order to stave off a greater conflagration.

How do the Philippines stand in this crisis? Firstly, electronics parts imports have dived indicating that this sector of the economy won't be a good performer this year. But that sector is no longer the country's biggest sector. The biggest is now the OFW market and this sector is not dependent directly or indirectly in the US since it caters mainly to the Middle East and this region doesn't produce a lot of goods and services for the US and other highly-industrialized countries (HICs).

A major sector, the natural-resources extraction sector including metals is primarily China-driven now. Will this suffer? Actually it will depend on how China handles this crisis since their number one market is the US. But being the cost and price leader worldwide they still have plenty of option regions. But of course these regions economic size and purchasing power cannot match the US'.

Our agri-business sector can probably ride out the storm since more and more it is not dependent on the US market. Instead it relies more on Japan and increasingly the Korea, China, Hongkong and other markets are being developed.

Meanwhile, our traditional agriculture market, though still big had become more of a non-factor in the last few years. Our coconut, abaca, tobacco markets is no longer that important while we are importers in our other agriculture needs like cereals.

An emerging BPO sector, which include call centers probably ranks second in importance now. This sector is putting up a brave face but its primary market is the US. Will enough US firms cut cost and outsource abroad so that previous demand cuts here will be negated? I cannot speculate on this since this is a US response area.

I point all of this out since I do not want to say that this impending crisis will just be a replay of the 2001 crisis spawned by the 9/11 NYTC attack. The world changes fast and underlying dynamics do change.

[photo credit:bigapple212]

Labels: 2008 crisis, 2009 crisis, 9/11, agri-business, BPO, call centers, denial complex, electronics parts imports, HIC, Middle East, natural resources extraction sector, OFW market, trillion dollars

The Incomprehensibility Of The U.S. Presidential Elections

9/18/2008 | Posted by myty555 | Edit Post

When George Bush jr. took over the reins of the White House nearly eight years ago, he inherited the Bill Clinton legacy--a balanced budget, decades of deficits erased, interest rates and inflation subdued after years of uncontrolled gallop, technology lead reclaimed, rising productivity in industry, a booming economy, renewed confidence in itself and better cooperation and understanding abroad compared to previous administrations.

Yes, Bush was a victim of the 9/11 tragedy, too, which happened very early in his first term. But that solitary tragedy seemed to trigger an irrational streak of administration on his part that constrasted to his successful terms as Texas governor. It seemed his whole administrative regime was dominated by his urge to "get back" against his 9/11 tormentors and its perceived allies. Non-Americans will always associate him as the charging (Lone?) Ranger against Al Qaeda, Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea.

While engaged in this "irrational" quest, the rest of the world got on with its business (I wonder if they even remembered the Coalition of the Willing). China and India emerged, Russia bottomed out on its path to ruin, the European Union was coming to age and Japan, uh well, continued in its steady if unspectacular path.

And how is the great USA faring at the tailend of the Bush administration? A tottering economy fuelled by its stock market and credit woes, a bulging deficit, entrenchment in the Iran and Afghanistan quagmires, a discredited leadership in international affairs and an unpopular president shunned even by the national convention of his party and kept at arms length by its standard bearer.

And yet, that standard bearer of Bush's party is running neck-to-neck with the standard bearer of the opposing party! Incredible! In the Philippines if such were the case McCain will certainly end up pummelled in the elections and a sorry loser after that (like McGovern). Does it mean that the Philippine electorate is more discerning than the US electorate? And I thought many said that the Filipino people has a very short memory. Does it mean that the US electorate has amnesia?

And again, I wonder why such a contest merits a lot of attention in the international media. Oh, I forgot, circuses really do attract a lot of attention.

Labels: 9/11, Coalition of the Willing, Dasheen bush, Mc Cain, US Elections 2008

UP Ibalon Bicol

The Coming Crisis of 2009: Some Thoughts (Part 1)

The Incomprehensibility Of The U.S. Presidential Elections

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