Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

PostHeaderIcon Dr. Doom thinks the worse is yet to come

11/19/2009 | Posted by mesiamd | Edit Post


In an article written for the Daily News, Nouriel Roubini, better known as Dr. Doom predicted that unemployment would be worse next year. From the official jobless rate of 10.2% the NYU economics professor who foresaw the economic meltdown spoke grimly of greater loss of work ---probably now hovering at 17.5% if those who stopped looking for jobs or remained underemployed were included.

“The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.

This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.”----Daily News (11/15/09, Roubini, N.)

Roubini suggested that in the coming year the unemployment rate will hover high at about 11%, but it will be far worse in the following two years. Because of a weak labor market, he says the economic growth and recovery will be slow.

The budget deficits will rise accompanied by slowing in the real estate market. Delinquencies on mortgage payments, larger budget deficits and a fall of real estate prices are expected. If these scenarios occur, banks and lending institutions will bear much of the pain.

Roubini’s prescription is for the government to embark on another stimulus---creation of jobs by investing on infrastructure. Giving away unemployment checks is not enough. Those without work must find a way to have one and be productive.

Judging from the falling popularity of Obama, there is doubt if the US president can steer the country to better economic times. As he rounds up his visit to Beijing, China, Obama speaks of a double-dip recession if debt and spending are not controlled. =0=

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PostHeaderIcon Fearless economic forecasts

3/11/2009 | Posted by mesiamd | Edit Post
Dominique Strauss-Khan

In a warning delivered by IMF Managing Dir. Dominique Strauss-Khan during a conference of African finance ministers and central bank governors, the International Monetary fund (IMF) speaks of the deepening global financial crisis and the possibility that the world's economic growth will be zero.

The financial meltdown can cause massive suffering, social displacement, and chaos in vulnerable countries.

The effects of the downturn may not be fast in reaching Africa, but Srausse-Khan said, “continued deleveraging by the world's financial institutions, combined with a collapse in consumer and business confidence, is depressing domestic demand across the world."----Philstar (03/10/09)

Warren Buffet

On the other hand, American billionaire Warren Buffet who has the common sense of living "below his means" believes America will bounce back even though “it has fallen off a cliff.” The “Oracle of Omaha” who predicted the worst case scenario in the last 6 months, watches a nation swept with a housing slump, high unemployment, and inflation. He sees lack of confidence, confusion, and fear are defining consumer behavior at this time.—The Washington Times/ AP (03/09/09, Funk J)

Harry S. Dent

Similar gloomy predictions have been made by American economist Harry S. Dent in his book “The Great Depression Ahead : How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History.” The book is a good read. He speaks of this year as a bad season---ushering economic turmoil that none of the current generation has seen.

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, professor of NYU’s Stern School of Busicness believes the US recession could last up to 36 months. With no hope of ending the recession this year, "Dr. Doom" said,, "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year."----CNBC (03/09/09, Wells, J)

Pres. Barack Obama

But President Barack Obama offers bright economic forecasts with his proposed $3.55 trillion budget. He predicts that the economy will shrink by only 1.2%, and will recover in 2010 with a growth of 3.2%. However, non-partisan analysts believe this is overly-optimistic.---McClatchy Newspapers (02/26/09, Hall, K)

The public is less upbeat than Obama, but people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Midway in the 100-day honeymoon period after assuming presidency, he gets a 67% approval rating, a very good grade at this time when Americans are fearful and disconsolate over the financial ruin they are dealing.(Photo Credit: Atsibatsi)=0=

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PostHeaderIcon Dr. Doom’s economic crystal ball & the need to say the truth

10/30/2008 | Posted by mesiamd | Edit Post


“Dr. Doom foresees agony in our future,” says the banner headline of Metro, a street newspaper in the Big Apple, the world's biggest metropolis. Metro, New York, (10/29,08, Arden, P) He believes the NYC recession will stay for more than two years.

In the financial circles, Dr. Doom is reaping vindication after he was tagged as an alarmist for his bleak predictions on the economy long before it happened. The NYU economics professor travels more frequently outside USA now, sharing to the world his Nostradamus-like prescient cataclysmic read of the financial future.

Dr. Doom whose real name is Nouriel Roubini has a lot to say about the financial downturn whose solution has moved into uncharted territory. In spite of the $700 billion bailout, persistent market volatility exists which shows no indication of abating.

“Every time there has been a severe crisis in the last six months, people have said this is the catastrophic event that signals the bottom. They said it after Bear Stearns, after Fannie and Freddie, after AIG [the giant US insurer that had to be rescued], and after the $700 billion bailout plan. Each time they have called the bottom, and the bottom has not been reached.


Across the world, governments have taken more and more aggressive actions to stop the panic. However, Roubini believes investors appear to have lost confidence in governments’ ability to sort out the mess." TimesOnline (10/26/08, Rushe, D)

Roubini’s dire look into the future is unlike the optimism and promises of the politicians in the soon-to-be concluded US presidential election in which hope is matched with fear. It brings recall former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who expresses trust in the American people for their extraordinary patience, industry and resiliency. But,---they need to make the right choices.

In his recent book on “Real Change” published months before the economy collapsed, Gingrich mentioned a serious problem.

“The problem is with the politicians, our news media, and our bureaucratic elites. They are afraid to tell the American people the truth. They are afraid to explain the scale of the threat and the inevitable scale of the needed response.”---Real Change: From the world that fails to the world that works." (Regnery Publishing, Washington DC, 2008, Gingrich, N., p.298) (Photo Credits: outragousart; nicoridge)=0=
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